CO2 emissions continue to boom
29 September 2008
Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and making cement are still growing quickly, in defiance of global agreements to cut them, according to the Global Carbon Project's second annual update on global emissions.
Emissions from sources such as coal power stations show no signs of slowing
The data shows that emissions rose in 2007 compared to the previous year.
This suggests we are heading for the more extreme end of the range of climate change predictions set out in the 2007 report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The figures also show how the pattern of emissions is changing - most notably, for the first time more than half of human CO2 emissions come from developing nations.
And the planet's ability to absorb this carbon isn't keeping pace; forests and oceans, Earth's natural carbon sinks, absorbed 53% of human CO2 emissions since 2000, down from 57% between 1959 and 2000.
'The global economy continues to depend on fossil fuels,' says Corinne Le Quéré, professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences and a researcher at the British Antarctic Survey, who took part in the research.
'Over the past 10-15 years we've observed the increased CO2 contribution made by developing countries as their economies grow,' she adds. 'CO2 in our atmosphere is a very serious issue. Emissions in 2007 were at the high end of those used for climate projections in the last IPCC report. If this trend continues and the natural sinks weaken, we are on track towards the highest projections of climate change.'
Kyoto targets in peril
In 1990, the rich countries (which are classified as 'Annex B' nations under the Kyoto Protocol) emitted 3.75 billion tonnes of carbon, while the rest of the world gave out 2.08 billion tonnes.
In 2007, Annex B states emitted 3.78 billion tonnes, while other countries increased their total carbon emissions to 4.26 billion tonnes.
Much of the reason that the developed nations' emissions didn't grow more quickly was a dramatic fall in Russia's emissions.
The state of carbon sinks may be as big a concern as the continued growth in emissions. 'It appears that the sinks are not increasing as fast as the emissions, though the uncertainty is large. We see a trend of slow decline in the efficiency of the sinks, with a drop of around 5% over the period from 1959 to 2007,' says Le Quéré.
Most of the fall in natural absorption of carbon is simply because emissions are growing too quickly for carbon sinks to keep up, but there's also evidence that some carbon sinks' ability to absorb carbon is failing. In particular, scientists now believe that changes in ocean circulation are causing the carbon absorbed into the sea to return to the surface more quickly.
The picture is less clear around the state of land-based carbon sinks. But there are concerns that these too are coming under stress.
Plants can grow more quickly with more CO2 in the air, and this provides an initial benefit as they draw more carbon out of the atmosphere. But once the plants die they also rot more quickly in warmer conditions, and scientists fear that the extra carbon this adds to the atmosphere will outweigh the benefits of faster plant growth.
'If this is emerging evidence of a lower ability of the land surface to mitigate CO2 emissions, it indicates that benefits due to higher CO2 levels increasing plant growth are possibly being offset by enhanced respiration in a warming climate,' says Chris Huntingford, a climate modeller at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.
The Kyoto protocol aims to cut countries' carbon emissions from developed nations below 1990 levels by an average of 5% by 2012. Many developing nations have signed up to the treaty, but they aren't yet obliged to cut emissions, only to monitor and report them.
European countries have agreed to cut their emissions by an average of 8% of 1990 levels by 2012. So far very few look like making these targets, with the European total little-changed compared to 1990's levels, though the picture isn't entirely gloomy.
Several nations have cut their net emissions compared to their 1990 levels. Britain's emissions have fallen around 4%, while Germany has cut emissions by about 11%.
The rich nations must share the blame for the growth in developing countries' emissions, since so much of the heavy industrial and manufacturing activity that sustains their economies has now moved to China, India and other developing economies.
'This does not look great, but there is still a little time to act,' Le Quéré says, though she adds that many countries will need to take action extremely quickly if they are to turn the situation around in time to meet their Kyoto targets in 2012.
The full findings were released on Friday September 26 by the Global Carbon Project.
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