UK's plans for electric future unveiled
1 December 2008
Removing carbon from the electricity industry is the number one priority if the UK is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. This is the conclusion of the independent Committee on Climate Change's first report published today.
Chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, Lord Adair Turner. The committee published its first report today.
The report recommends that in just over a decade UK greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by one fifth (21% of 2005 levels) to make the 80% target by the middle of the century.
The committee, chaired by Lord Adair Turner, says commercialising carbon capture and storage technology - preventing carbon dioxide from reaching the atmosphere by pumping it underground - is a must. The technology is still in its infancy and has yet to be attempted commercially.
Turner said, 'A particularly important development is the decarbonisation of electricity because electricity generation accounts for around 25% of emissions and, once we decarbonise electricity, we can then apply electricity to new activities - for instance to road transport and heating buildings.'
Investment in a combination of technologies - renewables (wind, tidal power, solar power and biomass), nuclear and carbon capture - will reduce the UK's emissions from power generation from current levels of 550 grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour to below 50gCO2/kWh in 2050.
Carbon capture and storage
The report states, 'Carbon capture and storage is an essential technology for reducing emissions, but needs to be developed rapidly.' The world's first demonstration of carbon dioxide capture and underground storage - the Sleipner gas field in the North Sea - has already injected about ten million tonnes of carbon dioxide into porous rock. The British Geological Survey is helping monitor and model the injected carbon dioxide in the rock.
The project, which began in 1996, shows the technology does work, at least when carbon dioxide is separated off at the platform and pumped back underground. But this is just one part of the chain and on a much smaller scale than power generation - a typical coal-fired power station emits about 12.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.
The first carbon budget
The Committee on Climate Change is seen as a key part of the UK government's Climate Change Act which came into force last week. Reporting to government annually, it will independently assess how the UK can make its emissions reduction targets in 2022 and 2050, and will advise on five-yearly carbon budgets up to 2022.
Recommendations include that 'conventional coal-fired power generation should only be built on the expectation that it will be retro-fitted with carbon capture and storage equipment by the early 2020s.'
The committee's findings drew on a UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) report 'Pathways to a low carbon economy: energy systems modelling' report, published on 28 November, which calls for a 'fundamental shift in technology and behaviour'. UKERC is funded by three research councils, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council.
The UKERC report says carbon capture and storage will make a big difference. Deeper cuts will require more use of nuclear and wind technologies, more fuel efficiency and reducing demand for electricity, particularly in homes and industry.
According to the report, to meet 80% emissions targets by 2050, the electricity generating industry needs to reduce emissions by 93%, the residential sector 92%, transport 78%, the service industry 47% and the industrial sector 26%.
This would leave the remaining carbon dioxide emissions concentrated in selected industrial sectors and transport - most notably, aviation.
Capturing carbon before it reaches the atmosphere and pumping it underground is seen as a key technology to reduce emissions.
Lifestyle shift
Lifestyles in the UK will change under this regime. It is expected people will increasingly use plug-in battery-powered vehicles. Homes will move away from relying on gas and instead switch to heat pumps rather than boilers to heat rooms and water. This will mean a greater demand for electricity making the need to remove carbon from the power industry a priority.
The report points out that at the moment there is little awareness of technologies like heat pumps and 'their installation in buildings is by no means straightforward.'
'Policies for awareness-raising and training for their installation need to begin soon,' the report adds.
New climate evidence
Today's findings from the Committee on Climate Change follow an interim letter Turner wrote to Climate and Energy Minister, Ed Miliband, recommending that the government shift from a 60% emissions reduction target to a 80% target. The committee's letter noted six changes since adoption of the 60% target.
First, new evidence that rising temperatures will reduce the effectiveness of the ocean's and land's abilities to absorb carbon dioxide.
Second, the latest climate models show how gases other than carbon dioxide are warming the atmosphere.
Third, summer Arctic sea ice is shrinking faster than expected.
Fourth, atmospheric pollution has probably masked some of the warming cause by greenhouse gas emissions.
Fifth, scientists now have a better understanding of abrupt and irreversible changes to the climate.
Sixth, globally, emissions are higher than anticipated largely because of higher economic growth and a shift towards more carbon-intensive sources of energy.
The committee's decision to recommend an 80% emissions cut is based on its judgment that the adverse consequences of climate change are likely to increase significantly if global temperatures rise more than 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels. They are already 0.7ºC degrees above this level.
If temperatures rise 4ºC 'extreme consequences, potentially beyond our ability to adapt would arise.'
'We believe that global policy should seek to limit global temperature rise to 2 ºC and that it should ensure that the probability of crossing the extreme danger threshold of 4°C is reduced to an extremely low level, for example, less than 1%.'
A Hadley Centre report for the committee says that reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 20 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050 would lead to a carbon dioxide equivalent concentration in the atmosphere of around 460 parts per million by the year 2200. By 2100, this would cause a 2ºC temperature rise. But would keep the probability of a 4ºC rise by 2100 at an extremely low level.
Reducing emissions to 24 billion tonnes by 2050 would lead to atmospheric concentrations of around 480ppm by 2200. Temperatures by 2100 would reach 2.2ºC and the chances of a 4ºC rise would still be low.
But accepting significantly higher emissions, say if emissions grow modestly so they reach 48 billion tonne by 2050, this would lead to a carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere of 650ppm by 2200. By 2100, this would give a 2.8ºC rise and increase the probability of a 4ºC rise in 2100 to just under 10%.
The climate minister accepted the recommendations on 16 October.
The six-strong committee includes the research director of UKERC, Professor Jim Skea, scientists Professor Sir Brian Hoskins and Lord Robert May, economists Dr Sam Fankhauser and Professor Michael Grubb and Vice-Chancellor of Aston University, Professor Julia King.
The chair of the committee, Lord Turner, was recently appointed head of the Financial Services Authority and is the former chairman of the Economic and Social Research Council.
In November, the UK launched the world's first standard for carbon footprints. Skea chaired the steering group that helped develop the standard.
The report comes as 190 countries meet in Poznan, Poland for two weeks of talks to agree a new global climate treaty by the end of 2009.
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